11.03.04
Provisional Ballot Analysis
As of 1:00AM PST (4:00AM EST), President Bush leads John Kerry in Ohio by 171,533 votes (99% of precincts reporting). Now the discussion turns to the high profile provisional ballots. Many numbers have been thrown around, but estimates for the number of provisional ballots outstanding in Ohio have ranged between 100,000 and 200,000. Let’s say there are 200,000 provisional ballots (the high estimate). Now, let’s even assume that 100% of these provisional ballots will be considered as qualified ballots (meaning they will be actually counted). For Kerry to win in Ohio, he would need to win 92.9% of those provisional ballots in order to squeak by with a margin of 67 votes in Ohio.
According to NBC news at this time, the numbers are even worse: they estimate 150,000 provisional ballots and that 90% on average are counted as qualified ballots. Even though their vote count puts the President ahead by only 144,000 votes, in this scenario, there would only be 135,000 provisional ballots counted as qualified ballots. Even if 100% of these provisional ballots went to Kerry (highly doubtful), the President would keep his lead by 9,000 votes.
Senator Kerry … IT’S OVER! Please don’t drag this country through another election fiasco. The President has won both the popular vote and the electoral college. Your only hope now would be to drag your army of 7,500 lawyers into this mess and try to litigate your way into the White House. Regardless of your view (and that of your peers) that the 2000 election was illegitimate, the President now has a clear mandate that can hardly be argued. You lost, plain and simple. Get over it.
UPDATE: The margin has tightened a bit as of 1:40AM PST (4:40AM EST) to 134,019 favoring the President. Still not enough for Kerry unless he wins a ridiculous number of votes from the outstanding provisional ballots, as the analysis above demonstrates.
FINAL UPDATE: With 100% of precincts reporting, the margin in Ohio stands at 145,098 votes in President Bush’s favor. We’re not talking about some small margin of votes like in Florida in 2000. This is a clear margin of victory by any account and beyond the allowable minimum threshold for calling a recount in Ohio.
Patterico's Pontifications said,
November 3, 2004 at 1:25 am
Memo to Kerry-Edwards 2004: GIVE IT THE *** UP
Face it, a 100,000 vote lead is not the same as a handful of votes in Florida 2004. Give it the **** up. You lost because you suck.
John Cunningham said,
November 3, 2004 at 5:28 am
I think it would be great if Kerry refuses to concede and lawyers up for 10 day sor two weeks. The longer he keeps it going, the worse the effects on the Dems. Lurch’s colossal ego will keep him from conceding.
ron said,
November 3, 2004 at 8:19 am
Kerry should hang tough for awhile. And maybe he can call for recounts in ALL the close states? If, by chance, a miracle should happen for him in Ohio it would be pure poetic justice for him to win the electoral college while bush gets almost four million more votes. I would laugh forever and be sure to make the inauguration.
That being said, now maybe we can repeal Roe v Wade for the Christian Right and then sit back and watch as the same mistakes and idiotic fiscal and monetary policy made by 20th century republicans (remember the Depression?) eat us alive in the 21st century. Libral? Tax and Spend? It’s Spend and spend now, boys. Forget about tax and spend! Let the children pay it off! I will just continue with my lies…and do it so well, while thousands more die around the world, except in the caves of Tora Bora. Geez, I sure hope I don’t get them all killed, somebody ELSE needs to pay my bills. And if a doctor screws you or a loved one up, take an aspirin, cause you can’t file suit no more! Tort reform NOW!!,” bushspeaks. “Due process and equal justice be damned… Right, Johnnie (Ashcroft)? Now, Karl (Rove), where did you put my jack boots?”
Trivia time….What prominent American family shares a direct blood line with the British throne? You guessed it… da Bushes. Now you know why they had to get out of New England and move to sagebrush country. REAL New Englanders kicked the crown out in the 1700’s. But deep from the heartland, the country club republicans rule!! If you want to play, you have to pay.
Just remember, now they can tap your phone, come in your house, take your property, lock you up without a lawyer, hold you almost indefinitely, alllllll for the sake of freedom…..or did I mean fiefdom?
I love my country. But I sure am starting to fear my government. Wake up guys! This is gonna be real.